On 3rd March 2026, UK chancellor gave Parliament an update on the state of the economy, noting there were no major tax changes for individuals or businesses since these had already been outlined in the Autumn Budget.
Summary of the main points were set out as follows from this Statement :
- Growth downgraded for this year from 1.4% to 1.1%, signaling slower momentum than expected at the November Budget.
- Medium-term growth 1.6% in 2027 and 2028, slightly higher than the previous 1.5% forecast, suggesting a more stable long-run trajectory.
- Unemployment expected to rise peaking at 5.3% this year before gradually easing to 4.1% by 2030.
- Inflation easing back averaging 2.3% this year and returning to the 2% target in 2027, indicating a slower disinflation path than previously hoped.
- Mortgage rates on existing loans expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.5% by 2030, slightly lower than previously forecast but still adding pressure for many households.
- Housebuilding to fall from around 260,000 homes a year in the early 2020s to 220,000 in 2026/27, before rebounding to 305,000 by 2030/31.
- Net migration 60,000 lower than November’s forecast, largely due to more UK nationals leaving, expected to fluctuate between 200,000 and 300,000 annually through the decade.
Detailed Information on the Statement announced can be found in the Economic and fiscal outlook March 2026 page on GOV.UK
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